Frequency Distribution of Intense Rainfall in the Wards of Tokyo and Its Relationship with the Spatial Structure of Building Heights

 This study presents the minute spatial structure of both the frequency of intense rainfall (data from the 1991 to 2002, except 1993, were used) and recent trends (15-25 years until 2002) in the special wards of the Tokyo Metropolis in summer (June to September), on the basis of hourly rainfall data from a dense rain-gauge network. As this is the first step in elucidating the relationship between the distribution of the frequency of intense rainfall and that of surface roughness in metropolitan Tokyo, the averaged number of building stories within a certain area, which is referred to as the smoothed building height (SBH), was assumed to be an alternative parameter when deciding surface roughness. The distribution of the ascending rate of SBH (hereafter, the ascending rate of SBH is referred to as ARS) for wind direction was calculated by varying the averaging area for SBH, in order to compare it to the distribution of intense rainfall frequency. The results are summarized as follows.<br> The high-frequency areas of intense rainfall appear in the western to northern parts of the area comprising the wards and along the boundary between the Tokyo Metropolis and Saitama Prefecture. The frequency of intense rainfall in these areas is two to three times as high as that in the eastern part of the area comprising the wards. Moreover, the maximum areas of intense rainfall frequency are localized in the western, northern to northwestern, and southern part of the area comprising the wards, corresponding to wind direction. These areas are situated 3-5 km from the leeward side of the area, where the ARS derived from the SBH at a 1-2 km scale is large, that is, the vicinities of Shinjuku (SNJ), Ikebukuro (IKB), and Shibuya (SBY). Accordingly, we suggest that the large surface roughness due to high-rise buildings in the western part of the area comprising the wards has the effect of increasing the frequency of intense rainfall.<br> The increasing trend of intense rainfall is clear in the western part of the area comprising the wards, whereas a decreasing trend, although not statistically significant, is seen in the eastern part of the area comprising the wards. It is noted that observational stations with large increasing trends of intense rainfall, such as Nakano (NKN) and Shinagawa (SNG), are located 3-5 km from the leeward side of SNJ and on the shore of Tokyo Bay in the southern part of the area comprising the wards, respectively, where the ARS for easterly winds derived from the SBH at a 1-2 km scale is large.