An Explanation for Turnout Rates in Japanese Lower House Elections

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  • 総選挙における投票率の説明
  • ソウセンキョ ニ オケル トウヒョウリツ ノ セツメイ

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We tried to explain the variation of the turnout rates in Japanese Lower House Elections from 1976 to 1983 among all 130 districts. Although we examined different levels of alternative explanations, we selected a model of individual choice as our basic one. The reason for this selection is that voting decisions are made only by individuals and factors of other levels can be treated as influence in individual decision making process.<BR>From the viewpoint of our “choice model” we are especially interested in the mechanism which determines the subjective probability for a vote to influence election outcome. We found two promising explanatory variables : “relative weight of one vote” and “competitiveness” (closeness) in each district. Since the former one is more problematic, we focused our attention on it. Our hypothesis is that the less the relative weight of one vote is, the more individuals feel powerless or meaningless and stop voting.<BR>Our data showed high positive correlation in the direction of our prospect. However, to make the empirical verification of our deductive inference, we need more prudent analysis. Thus, we introduced four possible explanations which could cause spurious correlation between “relative weight of a vote” and voting turnout rate. They are urbanity, youth rate, population mobility, and industrial structure. Through multiple regression analysis we controlled these possible factors and tested our hypothesis.<BR>This statistical estimation showed that our hypothesis deduced from our “choice model” are supported. Even though we controlled four possible explanations in a single model, the relative weight of one vote was still highly significant. Moreover, the competitiveness, our second variable, was also significant in the same model. Thus, we conclude that the “choice model” seems promising for explaining Japanese electoral outcomes.

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