Time Series Estimation of Inflow Traffic on Urban Expressway Based on Chaos Theory

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  • カオス理論を用いた都市高速道路流入交通量の時系列予測に関する研究
  • カオス リロン オ モチイタ トシ コウソク ドウロ リュウニュウ コウツウリョウ ノ ジケイレツ ヨソク ニ カンスル ケンキュウ

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Abstract

It is necessary to estimate time series inflow traffic to do appropriate traffic control on urban expressway. However, it is difficult to estimate time series inflow traffic by the exponential smoothing method because it creates nonlinear and irregular fluctuation. This paper proposes to estimate time series inflow traffic on urban expressway based on chaos theory and neural network. These methods can be applied to describe nonlinear and irregular fluctuation of time series data. The forecasted inflow traffics are used for input data of traffic simulation model. Applicability of the proposed methods is examined by the estimation accuracy of traffic congestion on the expressway. As a result, it is known that the estimation accuracy of the proposed methods is better than the exponential smoothing method.

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