Utility of Kaplan-Meier method and risk classification for recurrence rate of primary spontaneous pneumothorax

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  • 原発性自然気胸術後再発率の評価方法とリスク分類の検討

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No evaluation method has been established for primary spontaneous pneumothorax (PSP). We performed video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) for ninety-six patients with PSP in our hospital. PSP patients were enrolled in this study from 2009. The risk factor for postoperative recurrence of PSP was the age: under 24 yo only for both uni- and multivariate analysis. Compared with the Kaplan-Meier method and a simple method which we defined as the recurrent number per objective number, the postoperative recurrence rates of PSP over 25 yo were 2.9 and 4.9%, respectively, with the Kaplan-Meier and simple methods, and that under 24 yo was 26.6%with the Kaplan-Meier method. We clarified a difference in the recurrence rate according to the statistical analysis or backgrounds, and suggest that the Kaplan-Meier method is better than the simple method regarding the accuracy. Depending on the classification for the risk factor of age, the recurrence rates of low- and high-risk groups were significant with the Kaplan-Meier method (0 vs. 22.0%, respectively, p<0.05). In conclusion, we suggest that the Kaplan-Meier method is useful for evaluation of the postoperative recurrence rate. In the near future, we may develop a strategy of individual therapy for PSP using the classification of recurrent risk.

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