Analysis and prediction of changes in farmland use in suburban Osaka considering social factors

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  • 社会的要因を考慮した都市郊外部における農地変化の分析と予測シミュレーション －大阪府を事例として－
  • シャカイテキ ヨウイン オ コウリョ シタ トシ コウガイブ ニ オケル ノウチ ヘンカ ノ ブンセキ ト ヨソク シミュレーション : オオサカフ オ ジレイ ト シテ

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Abstract

Recently, the increased rate of developments in suburban areas has resulted in marked decrease of farmland. Farmland has various functions and plays an important role in our life. Therefore, it is necessary to promote conservation of farmland. In this regard, in order to consider and adopt an appropriate policy to prevent the decrease in farmland, it is important to make a detailed analysis of land use and predict the future land use based on this analysis. In this study, we analyzed the land use pattern of a study area in Osaka, Japan, considering social factors comprehensively. Further, we constructed a Naive Bayes probabilistic model to predict details of the future land use, for consideration in future land use policy formulation. The results of our analysis suggested that neighborhood land use and low restrictions on developments in the area are significant and important factors influencing changes in farmland use in the study area. The accuracy of the model was validated by comparing the predicted land use with the real land use of the area. The recall ratio of the model was more than 70%, which is higher than the previous models. Consequently, it is predicted that if the present condition continues, there will be considerable decrease in farmland area in the future compared to the target value originally set by the municipality in Osaka. It is suggested that the preferential restriction on development of dense farmland by tightening law more than ever is an effective measure in lowering the rate of decreasing farmland in the area to some extent.

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