Long-term Evaluation of the Impact of Bio-based Plastic Diffusion on Global Food Insecurity

MUNESUE Yosuke, MASUI Toshihiko

doi:10.11353/sesj.25.167

The relationship between the diffusion of bio-based plastics and the crop demand for their production was analyzed, and its impacts on food insecurity in developing regions were evaluated until 2050 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The present study has shown the following results: (1) the world plastic demand is 230 million tons in 2009 and will rise to 831 million tons in the A2r scenario, 1,211 million tons in the B1 scenario, and 1,070 million tons in the B2 scenario in 2050, and almost all of the increased demand will arise from developing regions; (2) the crop demands for bio-based plastics will be 112 million tons to 1,101 million tons for maize and 416 million tons to 4,095 million tons for sugarcane, assuming that the share of bio-based plastics in the plastic market will expand from 8 percent to 62 percent in 2050; (3) these maximum values exceed the crop production for food use, namely, 959 million tons of maize and 1,966 million tons of sugarcane; (4) even under the low diffusion scenarios, the growing demand for bio-based plastics will affect food insecurity in low-income countries because poverty will remain the primary cause of hunger in the future; and (5) criteria for the sustainable production and use of bio-based plastics needs to be developed in a similar manner to those for biofuels, which have already been reported from international organizations.

Long-term Evaluation of the Impact of Bio-based Plastic Diffusion on Global Food Insecurity

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