A System to Predict Diameter Distribution in Pure Even-aged Hinoki (Chamaecyparis obtusa Sieb.) Plantations (I) : Diameter Distribution Prediction System

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In this study, we developed a system to predict the distribution of trees in a pure even-aged Hinoki (Chamaecyparis obtusa Sieb.) plantation, mainly using measurement data obtained from two experimental forests in the Tokai district of Japan and published data of the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute of Japan (FFPRI) in Kinki, Shikoku and Kyushu districts. The system consists of a model to predict stand basal area, a model to estimate maximum density, and a model to predict diameter distribution succession. The system can predict the diameter distribution at the end of a growth period by the diameter distribution at the beginning of the growth period without tree height data. To validate the system, we compared the prediction and observation of stand variables (stand density and stand basal area) and statistics of diameter distribution (mean and standard deviation of diameter at breast height) using data from experimental forests in the Kanto district. We also compared the accuracy of the predictions of the system with those of an existing system that required tree height data. The results indicated that our system predicted stand variables and diameter distribution as precisely as the existing system, but without the need for tree height data. We conclude that our system would operate accurately in other districts to predict stand growth.

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