Relationship Between Warm Season Precipitation and Highest Hourly and Daily Precipitation Based on AMeDAS Data.

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  • Motoyuki USHIYAMA
    Disaster Control Research Center, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University.
  • Kaoru TAKARA
    Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University.

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  • ＡＭｅＤＡＳデータによる暖候期降水量と最大１時間・日降水量の関係
  • AMeDAS データ ニ ヨル ダンコウキ コウスイリョウ ト サイダイ 1ジカン ニチコウスイリョウ ノ カンケイ

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the warm season precipitation and the historical highest hourly and daily precipitations based on AMeDAS data during 20 years (1979 - 1998, 1148 observatories) for simple estimation method of heavy rainfall. The linear regression equation is obtained for the historical highest (20-year highest) precipitation and the warm season precipitation from April to October, which indicates highest correlation. The equation is used for mapping of 20-year precipitation estimates. The equation is also used to define the“heavy rainfall blank areas”, in which some AMeDAS observatories have the historical highest precipitation smaller than one estimated by the equation. Defined“heavy rainfall blank areas”are around border between Akita Pref. and Iwate Pref., east area of Nagano Pref., north area of Nagano Pref., Hokoriku district, Hiroshima Pref., Fukuoka Pref., south area of Kumamoto Pref. and east area of Kagoshima Pref. In addition, this paper tries to estimate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by using an envelope drawn in the scattergram of the warm season precipitation and historical highest precipitation. Consequently, the envelope could be a tool for estimating PMP, because it covers the highest records at more than 97% among 154 weather stations of JMA.

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