Validation of Flood, Sediment Disaster at the Sayo River Basin and Method of Evacuation Decision-making Support

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  • 佐用川流域で発生した洪水災害及び土砂災害の検証と避難意思決定支援の在り方
  • サヨウガワ リュウイキ デ ハッセイ シタ コウズイ サイガイ オヨビ ドシャ サイガイ ノ ケンショウ ト ヒナン イシ ケッテイ シエン ノ アリカタ

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Abstract

<p> To enhance disaster preparation for incidents that involve rainfall, we developed a system to support evacuation decision-making by people in charge of disaster prevention and by the general public. A reproduction calculation result for the 2009 Sayo event is presented herein. The risk of a flood disaster and a sediment disaster is estimated using calculations incorporating single rainfall data and ensemble calculations using multiple rainfall data.</p><p>For flood disasters, an inundation depth map, a risk map, and an optimal evacuation path are calculated. Inundation records and other methods used to validate the accuracy of the calculation results show that the inundation depth distribution accuracy is enhanced using 5 mDEM instead of 10 mDEM. For a sediment disaster, a warning level map, risk map, and risk index are calculated. Collapse records and other methods used to validate the calculation result accuracy demonstrate that the correlation between the calculated risk index and collapse record is enhanced by consideration of multiple risk factors, which include not only rainfall and the soil precipitation index but also the slope form, geology, and others. For a complex disaster, a combination of a flood disaster and a sediment disaster, a risk map, and optimal evacuation path are calculated to show evacuation guidelines for people in charge of disaster prevention and for the general public.</p>

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