「ディシ－アンマン送水計画」をめぐる国家間対立の展望

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  • 杉野 晋介
    拓殖大学大学院国際協力学研究科安全保障専攻

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  • Outlook for Interstate Confrontation over the Disi Project

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Complete observation of all activities of transboundary groundwater exploitation is impossible because groundwater is not visible from the ground surface. Therefore, if one basin state is revealed to have been using huge amounts of groundwater unilaterally, then more important issues or conflicts might arise among the basin states, perhaps eventually developing into interstate confrontation over the groundwater distribution. As described herein, we specifically examine the Disi-Mudawwara-to-Amman Water Conveyance Project, which supports Jordan's domestic water supply by exploiting transboundary groundwater distributed across Saudi Arabia from Jordan. We attempt to forecast the probability of confrontation between Jordan and Saudi Arabia arising from this project. Results show that, in this case, where the issues are not discussed transparently between both states, they must maintain the status quo. No dialogue related to the transboundary groundwater exploitation can be initiated. However, if Saudi Arabian well users were to find some dissatisfaction with their wells and then ask their government to compensate them for losses, the Saudi Arabian government would be compelled to take some measures against Jordan to satisfy users. Depending upon the measures that Saudi Arabia pursues, this issue might grow from an interstate water issue to involve Middle Eastern and global security issues.

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