A Tool for Estimating the Risk of Extreme Climatic Events

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  • 農業気象災害のリスク推定ツール
  • Tool for Estimating the Risk of Extreme Climatic Events

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Extreme climatic events such as untimely frosts or heavy rainfall can devastate a farming enterprise. Historical weather data can be used to estimate the risk of this kind of event, in order to prioritize investment in mitigatory measures. However, software to calculate and display the risk information is usually tied to a particular database. This paper describes two Java applets that use historical weather data to calculate the probability of air temperature, rainfall or wind speed being lower or higher than user-nominated thresholds. The first applet displays the monthly probabilities of such events, and the daily cumulative probabilities of the first and last occurrence of an event within a season at a site. Weather data can be used from any one of eleven online climate databases, accessed through the MetBroker system. The risk of frosts of varying severity at two sites of similar absolute latitude, one in New Zealand and one in Japan, are compared to demonstrate the capabilities of the software. The second applet shows the spatial variation in risk over a region, calculating the risk at each weather station in the region and, in the case of temperature, interpolating temperatures between stations.

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