Future Prediction of the Number of HIV-infected Persons and AIDS Cases

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  • HASHIMOTO Shuji
    School of Health Sciences and Nursing, University of Tokyo
  • FUKUTOMI Kazuo
    National Institute of Public Health
  • ICHIKAWA Seiichi
    Laboratory of Public Health, Faculty of Hygienic Sciences, Kanagawa Prefectural College of Nursing and Medical Technology
  • MATSUYAMA Yutaka
    School of Health Sciences and Nursing, University of Tokyo
  • NAKAMURA Yosikazu
    Department of Health Science, Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, Jichi Medical School
  • KIHARA Masahiro
    Department of Epidemiology, Kanagawa Cancer Center Research Institute

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Other Title
  • ＨＩＶ感染者数とＡＩＤＳ患者数の将来予測
  • HIV カンセンシャスウ ト AIDS カンジャスウ ノ ショウライ ヨソク

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Abstract

Objective: A future prediction of HIV/AIDS in Japan (except HIV infection through blood coagulation factor products) was done.<BR>Materials & Methods: The numbers for HIV-infected persons and AIDS cases until 2003 were predicted using HIV/AIDS surveillance reports until 1998, the estimated coverage rate of HIV infection, proportion of HIV-infected persons with recent anti-HIV therapies, and the latent distribution from HIV infection to AIDS.<BR>Results: The prevalence of HIV-infected persons was estimated to be 7, 300 in the population of Japanese nationals and 700 in that of non-Japanese nationals by the end of 1998, and was predicted to be 15, 400 in Japanese and 700 in non-Japanese by the end of 2003. The cumulative numbers for AIDS cases were reported to be 925 in the population of Japanese nationals and 361 in that of non-Japanese nationals by the end of 1998, and was predicted to be 3, 300 in Japanese and 900 in non-Japanese by the end of 2003.<BR>Conclusion: The numbers predicted for HIV-infected persons and AIDS cases until 2003 were shown.

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