Onset of a Declining Trend in Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes Involving Drunk-driving in Japan
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- Nakahara Shinji
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, St. Mariana University
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- Katanoda Kota
- Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center
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- Ichikawa Masao
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Tsukuba
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Abstract
Background: In Japan, introduction of severe drunk-driving penalties and a lower blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit in June 2002 was followed by a substantial reduction in fatal alcohol-related crashes. However, previous research suggests that this reduction started before the legal amendments. The causes of the decrease have not been studied in detail.<BR>Methods: Monthly police data on fatal road traffic crashes from January 1995 to August 2006 were analyzed using a joinpoint regression model to identify change-points in the trends of the proportion of drunk-driving among drivers primarily responsible for fatal crashes. We analyzed the data by BAC level (≥0.5 or <0.5 mg/ml), then conducted analyses stratified by vehicle type (car or motorcycle) and age group (<45 or ≥45 years) only for the proportion of those with a BAC of 0.5 mg/ml or higher.<BR>Results: Among all drivers, the proportion of those with a BAC of 0.5 mg/ml or higher and those with a BAC greater than 0 but less than 0.5 mg/ml showed a change-point from increase to decrease in February 2000 and in May 2002, respectively. The proportion of those with a BAC of 0.5 mg/ml or higher showed a change-point from increase to decrease in October 1999 among car drivers and in April 2000 among drivers younger than 45 years. There was no change-point among motorcyclists. A change-point from no trend to a decrease in January 2002 was observed among those 45 years or older.<BR>Conclusions: The change-point identified around the end of 1999 to the start of 2000 suggests that a high-profile fatal crash in November 1999, which drew media attention and provoked public debate, triggered subsequent changes in drunk-driving behavior.
Journal
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- Journal of Epidemiology
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Journal of Epidemiology 23 (3), 195-204, 2013
Japan Epidemiological Association
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Details 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390282679452530048
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- NII Article ID
- 10031167778
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- NII Book ID
- AA10952696
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- COI
- 1:STN:280:DC%2BC3srmvV2nsQ%3D%3D
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- ISSN
- 13499092
- 09175040
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- HANDLE
- 2241/119486
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- PubMed
- 23604061
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- Text Lang
- en
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- Data Source
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- JaLC
- IRDB
- Crossref
- PubMed
- CiNii Articles
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- Abstract License Flag
- Disallowed