Do "Lucky" outcomes occur repeatedly? : Application of the "Luck Resource Belief" perspective to attitudes toward uncertain events

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  • 「幸運」な事象は連続して起こるのか? : 「運資源ビリーフ」の観点から
  • コウウン ナ ジショウ ワ レンゾク シテ オコル ノ カ ウン シゲン ビリーフ ノ カンテン カラ

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After obtaining positive results from uncertain events, individuals tend to feel confident in their skills (Langer, 1975). However, according to popular usage like lay theory, the word "lucky" carries relatively negative connotations for some people. This reflects the idea of "Luck Resource Belief," whereby luck supposedly decreases if it is consumed. In this study, we developed and administered a scale to survey this personal belief. We compared attitudes toward forthcoming uncertain events in the aftermath of a lucky or unlucky lotto outcome from the perspective of the "Luck Resource Belief." Results showed that when individuals adhering to the Luck Resource Belief obtained "lucky" lotto results, confidence and risky choices with regard to subsequent uncertain events were reduced. Such results have been discussed with regard to the Gambler's fallacy, anticipated regret, and mental simulation (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982).

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