On the Forecast of Time to Failure of Slope

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Other Title
  • 斜面崩壊発生時期の予測について
  • シャメン ホウカイ ハッセイ ジキ ノ ヨソク ニ ツイテ シャメン ホウカイ
  • Time Process of Slope Failure
  • 斜面崩壊の経時進行過程

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In this paper, process of slope failure is studied from phase of displacement (l) and its velocity (υ) along the slope. Velocity (υ) of displacement was calculated from the experimental data and the field data of slope failure, and the obtained date on υ and l are ploted on graph paper. It is found from these plots that process of slope failure expressed as tertiary creep contains two stages, which are called the first stage (I) and the second stage (II). In this failure process, the first stage (I) can be approximately expressed by υ=al+υ0, and the second stage (II) is expressed by υ=υ0 exp (b (l-l0)).Solutions of these υ-l equations are expressed as: υ=υ0 exp (at)(stage (I)), and υ=υ0/ (1-bυ0 (t-t0))(stage (II)). It is confirmed from date analysis that equation for stage (I) and stage (II) are applicable to 1/υ-t plot of date on graph paper. The solution for stage (I) expressing 1/υ-t shows a linear relationship on semilog graph paper, and applied range of this solution holds with time most of process for tertiary creep.Final slope failure occures shortly, coming to range of stage (II), the plot of 1/υ and t at this stage becomes a linear relationship on normal graph paper.D

Journal

  • Landslides

    Landslides 24 (4), 11-18_1, 1988

    The Japan Landslide Society

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