地域細分化型世界エネルギーモデルによる電気自動車の省エネルギー性能，環境性能に関する分析

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  • Analysis of Energy Saving and Environmental Characteristics of Electric Vehicle in Regionally-Disaggregated World Energy Model
  • チイキ サイブンカガタ セカイ エネルギーモデル ニ ヨル デンキ ジドウシャ ノ ショウエネルギー セイノウ,カンキョウ セイノウ ニ カンスル ブンセキ

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This paper investigates the impact of an extensive introduction of electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) into global energy system towards 2050. The significant growth of automobile ownership in emerging countries is likely to increase the world oil demand and the associated carbon dioxide emissions. In order to address these energy security and environmental concerns, the deployment of clean energy vehicles, such as EV and PHEV, are expected to play a crucial role due to its high fuel efficiency. On these backgrounds, we develop both global energy system model and world vehicle penetration model, which are able to explicitly analyze the impact of EV introduction into seasonal daily electric load curve considering its specific electricity charging profile to 2050. Simulation results confirm that EV deployment contributes to energy conservation, because oil demand reduction outstrips the growth in its electricity demand and the associated fuel input into power generation mix. Concerning carbon dioxide abatement, the magnitude of the impact relies on the carbon-intensity of power generation mix. If the intensity is low enough to make sure the carbon mitigation effect by EV fuel saving, the emissions reduction is well ensured. It should be noted, however, that, in the regions with high carbon intensity in power generation mix, carbon emissions per mileage of EV is almost equivalent to that of efficient gasoline vehicle like hybrid vehicle and PHEV is slightly higher than hybrid vehicle.

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