書誌事項
- タイトル別名
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- Evaluation of Forecast Errors of the Global Solar Irradiance Obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model
- キショウチョウ シュウカン ヨホウ モデル ノ ニッシャリョウ ヨソク ノ ゴサ ヒョウカ
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In this paper, forecasts of the daily global horizontal irradiance (GHI) obtained from the global spectral model (GSM) developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are evaluated using the surface-observed data at the six JMA stations for the four years during 2009-2012. Seasonal and regional characteristics of forecast errors of GSM GHI and the relationship between forecast errors and the length of the lead time of the forecasts are also investigated. The mean bias errors (MBE) of the monthly averaged GHI forecasts at Tsukuba station ranges from 0.5kWh/m2 to 2.1kWh/m2 per day and the root mean square errors (RMSE) of the forecasts ranges from 0.5 to 2.2kWh/m2 per day. Annual changes of both the MBE and the RMSE values are not large during the four years. Regional and seasonal characteristics of forecast errors are also found; negative biases in summer (positive biases in winter) are found in the Ishigakijima station, while positive biases are significant in all seasons at the other five stations. We also confirmed that RMSE values of the monthly GSM GHI are depended on the length of the lead time of the forecasts from 1-day ahead to 3-days ahead.
収録刊行物
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- 電気学会論文誌Ｂ（電力・エネルギー部門誌）
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電気学会論文誌Ｂ（電力・エネルギー部門誌） 134 (6), 501-509, 2014
一般社団法人 電気学会
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詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390282679579008384
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- NII論文ID
- 130004446648
- 40020128896
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- NII書誌ID
- AN10136334
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- ISSN
- 13488147
- 03854213
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- NDL書誌ID
- 025596967
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- 本文言語コード
- ja
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- データソース種別
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- JaLC
- NDL
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- 使用不可