Fast power system reliability evaluation by Monte Carlo method

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  • モンテカルロ法による電力系統の高速な信頼性評価法
  • モンテカルロホウ ニ ヨル デンリョク ケイトウ ノ コウソク ナ シンライセイ ヒョウカホウ

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Abstract

Accurate and equitable evaluation of power system operation with the consideration of transmission network is increasingly demanded by power industry due to the recent deregulation. Conventionally, the computation for the indices of reliability and economics is generally performed by Monte Carlo method, which however is time-consuming simulation especially for large systems with the consideration of a large number of contingencies. This paper aims to develop a fast Monte Carlo method for power system reliability evaluation by exploiting the properties of power system operation. As shown in this paper, in contrast to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation, the proposed method not only considerably improves the computation efficiency in terms of CPU time, but also has high accuracy from the statistical viewpoint.

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