定性・定量融合シミュレーションにおける寄与度の確率分布特性を用いた事業リスク要因発見方式

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タイトル別名
  • A Finding Method of Business Risk Factors Using Characteristics of Probability Distributions of Effect Ratios on Qualitative and Quantitative Hybrid Simulation
  • テイセイ テイリョウ ユウゴウ シミュレーション ニ オケル キヨド ノ カクリツ ブンプ トクセイ オ モチイタ ジギョウ リスク ヨウイン ハッケン ホウシキ

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説明

We propose a finding method of business risk factors on qualitative and quantitative hybrid simulation in time series. Effect ratios of qualitative arcs in the hybrid simulation vary output values of the simulation, so we define effect ratios causing risk as business risk factors. Finding business risk factors in entire ranges of effect ratios is time-consuming. It is considered that probability distributions of effect ratios in present time step and ones in previous time step are similar, the probability distributions in present time step can be estimated. Our method finds business risk factors in only estimated ranges effectively. Experimental results show that a precision rate and a recall rate are 86%, and search time is decreased 20% at least.

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