Application of Scenario-writing Method for Business Use

  • MURAKAMI Michikazu
    Sumitomo Electnic Industries, Ltd., RD group Deputy, Development Planning Department

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  • 企業におけるシナリオ・ライティング手法の活用


The scenario-writing method came into use during World War II. Its attraction was its qualitative style which numerical and quantitative methods such as operations research (OR) or system analysis (SA) didn't have. After the war, the method was refined and used mainly for technological forecasting, future forecasting. The conclusions drawn by scenario-writing method are very easy for its users to understand due to its interesting and descriptive style. It has become increasingly clear that the scenario-writing method is a good tool for not only technological or future forecasting but also for business activities such as the sale of system products and for evaluating changes of management within a company. In our company, it has been ascertained that the scenario-writing method can be applied to many business affairs and its effectiveness is acknowledged. This report describes how to write in the scenario-writing style and how to apply his method within a company. Three examples are given: 1) the forecasting of the impact of high-temperature superconducting materials, 2) the sales scenario of a local area network system to a science town, and 3) the scenario for a cnstruction of a training institute.


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