Re-examining the "Potential Out-Migrants" Hypothesis : Focusing on Differences among Regions and Cohorts

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  • 潜在的他出者仮説の再検討 : 地域的差異とコーホート間差異に着目して
  • センザイテキ タシュツシャ カセツ ノ サイケントウ チイキテキ サイ ト コーホートカン サイ ニ チャクモクシテ

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After World War II, Japan experienced a huge population migration from the non -metropolitan area to the metropolitan area. During the high economic growth period in the 1960s, the number of net in-migrants into the three metropolitan regions was about 400,000 every year.However, the number of net-in-migrants decreased rapidly during the 1970s.This phenomenon is called the migration turnaround.The "potential out-migrants" hypothesis suggested by Itoh (1984) is one of the important hypotheses pointing out that demographic transition causes turnaround in migration. This study aims at re-examining this hypothesis to clarify its validity and limitations by focusing on differences among regions and cohorts. In this study,potential successor and sufficiency of successor are calculated for the four 5-year cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s. Potential successor identifies the remaining population scale and sufficiency of successor is the rate of potential successor and cohort population. Sufficiency of successor can be used to analyze when and where population outflow exceeds potential out-migrants and how large its scale is.The study also includes parents'migration and their death as additional factors for potential successor to analyze how these factors influence the validity of the hypothesis. The results show that the hypothesis is valid with significance only in the 5-year cohort of the first half of the 1950s. In the three 5-year cohorts since the latter half of the 1950s, its validity is weaker for the younger cohort.Additionally,the difference of sufficiency of successor exists among prefectures in the non-metropolitan area.Lastly,by including the factors of parent's migration and their death,it is verified that parents had migrated to the suburb or surroundings of the metropolitan area and that because of this,potential successor in the non-metropolitan area decreased.

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