Long-term Population Dynamics in Japan Compared with Europe

This paper looks at past and projected demographic trends in Japan in comparison to European countries to highlight similarities and differences between these low-fertility, ageing populations. The role and impact of the two demographic options (fertility and migration) to counteract the prospected population decline and ageing in Japan are analysed by means of a view of the population dynamics from 1960 to 2060 and formal demography results. It is shown that Japan is going to endure-in demographic terms-four-decade period of below-replacement fertility plus the absence of significant immigration. This has made the difference from European countries, especially in recent decades, when immigration flows have become an important-if not the most important-component of growth in Europe. Although a recovery in fertility may certainly soften the impact of population decline and ageing in Japan, by itself it will not avoid any of them. In fact, its current population structure is such that these processes will continue for a period even if a sudden baby boom, sufficient to bring fertility back to replacement level, were to occur and mortality did not improve any further. Depending on future immigration flows, some European countries would try to continue their population growth or soften their decline, unlike Japan, where population decline is already taking place and may accelerate in the future. As for ageing, this is expected to occur everywhere in Europe, but to a (much) less extent than currently projected for Japan. The composition of the population and the extent of its ageing would then be the real elements of difference in the diverging demographic paths of Japan and Europe.