Risk Analyses of Rice Yield to Seasonal Climate Variability in China

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  • TAO Fulu
    Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences
  • YOKOZAWA Masayuki
    National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences

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Risk analyses of crop production to seasonal climate variability are fundamental towards developing a food security warning system and provision of adaptation options. In the study, first we identified the seasonal climate that affected rice production based on the frequent agrometeorological disasters in the main production regions in China; then we analyzed the correlation between rice yield anomaly and the seasonal climate anomaly using the weather and rice yield data for the 1979–2000 period. Finally, we used categorical forecasting skill to analyze the risk of rice production to the seasonal climate anomaly. We showed the frequency of main agrometeorological disasters and their impacts on the rice production in the main production regions in China. The results demonstrate that a warning system based on risk analyses and seasonal climate forecasting offers a potential for rice production to cope with climate variability.

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