A PROPOSAL FOR RE-ALLOCATOIN OF HOSPITAL BEDS IN VIEW OF AN AGING POPULATION : Application to Hiroshima Prefecture

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  • 人口の高齢化を考慮した一般病床数再配分方法の提案 : 広島県における適用事例
  • ジンコウ ノ コウレイカ オ コウリョシタ イッパン ビョウショウスウ サイ

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This paper examines the influence of demographic change on hospital beds allocation. First, we employ a cohort components method of population projection for each municipality. A morbidity model converts these population estimates into demand for hospitalization. Second, we estimate a multinominal logit model of hospital choice. Third, we carry out an optimal hospital bed allocation under maximizing social welfare defined by utility function of logit model. The policy implication of our findings given the changing structure of the population, is the need to re-allocate available hospital beds.

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