Demographic projection based on fertility goals stated in the national population strategy in Jordan

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  • SUEYOSHI Shuji
    School of Agricultural Regional Vitalization, Kibi International University

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  • 中東ヨルダンの人口政策に基づく将来人口予測
  • チュウトウ ヨルダン ノ ジンコウ セイサク ニ モトズク ショウライ ジンコウ ヨソク

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The fertility goals stated in the National Population Strategy and the successive Action Plans since 2000 in Jordan have not been achieved. The population growth rate and total fertility rate (TFR) remained at 2.2% and 3.5, respectively. The most recent fertility goal is that the TFR will decrease to 2.5 by 2017 and to a replacement level of 2.1 by 2030 (National Reproductive Health and Family Planning StrategyIII, 2013-2017). This study aimed to project the population and age dependency ratios for 2012 to 2062 under two scenarios (Scenario 1 : TFR declines according to the above fertility goal ; Scenario 2 : TFR moderately declines to 3.0 by 2022 and to 2.1 by 2040). The results showed that the total population will increase from 6.39 million (2012) to 7.93 million (2030) under Scenario 1 and that the age dependency ratio will decrease from 0.68 (2012) to 0.40 (2040) under both scenarios. Although a “demographic bonus” is expected in accordance with a decrease in fertility, the absorptive capacity of labor markets must increase and the availability of equitable and high-quality information and services related to reproductive health and family planning must be enforced.

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