Current Trends and Future Perspective of Oil Market

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  • Ishii Akira
    Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC)

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Other Title
  • 石油市場の現状と見通し
  • 特別講演 石油市場の現状と見通し--大きく分かれる価格高騰に関する見解
  • トクベツ コウエン セキユ シジョウ ノ ゲンジョウ ト ミトオシ オオキク ワカレル カカク コウトウ ニ カンスル ケンカイ
  • Discrepancy in Opinions for a Drastic Increase in Oil Prices
  • 大きく分かれる価格高騰に関する見解

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A current drastic increase in the oil prices is presumably caused by the movements of global speculative business. A capital inflow of indexed funds supported by pension funds into the oil market has been accelerated by the complicated factors with regard to the serious problems for the subprime loans in USA and the unreasonable fear of the peak in the world oil production. Mid-term and long-term prospects of oil supply and demand provide us a negative outlook for the rapid decrease or stabilization of oil prices due to the following two points: (1) the return of resource nationalism, the dominant occupancy of oil demand by the responsible nations with oil price controls, and high geopolitical risk, and (2) the retardation of oil developments due to the environmental issues, the lack of manpower resources in the oil industry, and the increasing coefficient of frction interfering with the market stabilization, eventually both leading to the unstable state of future oil market and the bubble economy.

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