Future prediction of the effect of global warming on a pig growth performance estimated from changes of the mean ambient temperature

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  • 地球温暖化が肥育豚の飼養成績に及ぼす影響―「気候温暖化メッシュデータ（日本）」によるその将来予測―
  • チキュウ オンダンカ ガ ヒイクブタ ノ シヨウ セイセキ ニ オヨボス エイキョウ キコウ オンダンカ メッシュ データ ニホン ニ ヨル ソノ ショウライ ヨソク

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Abstract

This experiment was conducted to predict the effect of global warming on a pig growth performance estimated from changes of the mean ambient temperature. The animal experiment was conducted in a room controlled with constant temperature and humidity. In this room, twenty one pigs (42.1±5.5kg) were individually housed in a cage. Four treatment groups were 23±1°C (adequate, 7 pigs), 28±1°C (moderate high temperature, 7 pigs), 30±1°C (moderate high temperature, 4 pigs), and 33±1°C (high temperature, 3 pigs). Relative humidity in all treatment groups was kept constant at 60±10%. The relation between ambient temperature and growth performance were analyzed and the following results were obtained. At 24.5°C, 27.3°C and 30.4°C, average daily gain decreased by 5%, 15% and 30%, respectively, compared to that at 23°C. Similarly, at 25.9°C, 30.3°C and 33.8°C, average daily feed intake decreased by 5%, 15% and 30%, respectively, compared to that at 23°C. The summer (June, July, August and September) data were analyzed with a program that illustrates the temperature range and the area on the map. The database of “Climate Change Mesh Data (Japan)” was used to calculate the annual mean temperature under the climate change scenario at 10×10 km mesh. With the progress of year from present to 2030's and 2060's, the area where the average daily gain reduced will expand to the north of Japan and its reducing degree will be accelerated. In August at the present, the decrease of average daily gain is already observed in west area. In 2060's August, however, its severe reduction will be developed in almost all area of Japan except Hokkaido. These results indicate that global warming will greatly affect the pig production in future Japan.

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