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環境影響評価モデル構築における人間活動の影響の評価

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  • Effects of Human Activities for Environmental Impact Assessment Modelling
  • カンキョウ エイキョウ ヒョウカ モデル コウチク ニ オケル ニンゲン カツドウ ノ エイキョウ ノ ヒョウカ

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To describe biological, chemical and physical processes in coastal sea areas, there are many mathematical models that are governed by a set of differential equations with parameters and coefficients. And, to determine those parameters and coefficients, it is necessary to evaluate the effects of impact loads that are basically caused by human activities on the coastal land area. However, the effects of impact load: kinds, volume, ways of influences, etc., are not necessarily discussed in detail in most of the existing mathematical models. It may be because that the environmental impact loads from human activities are quite diverse and are not uniform even in a narrow coastal land area. So that, it is considered urgent to develop the model of evaluating the kinds, volume, origin and effects of pollutant loads discharged by human activities. This paper deals with the method and model for evaluating the effects of human activities on the pollutant load influx into the coastal sea area through rivers. A concept of universal model is introduced for modelling the effects of human activities and resultant impact loads on surrounding natural environments. Cross Impact Matrices are introduced for understanding causes and effects of human activities with the consideration of regional characteristics. A method of system-dynamics (SD) is introduced to establish the modelling. The authors show that it is possible to model, predict and evaluate the effects of human activities on the mathematical model of unified land-sea ecosystem model using the results of analyses and predictions.

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