A Prediction Method of Travel Demand Considering Societies' Point of View : A Feasibility Study on New Marine Transportation

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  • Prediction Method of Travel Demand Considering Societies Point of View A Feasibility Study on New Marine Transportation

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In the present study, a new prediction method of travel demand based on society's point of view as well as users' and operators' ones is developed. In the method, firstly, prediction of travel demand from society's point of view is carried out. In the prediction, each transportation system is evaluated based on benefit and cost for society. The elements of the benefit consists of an economical impact and global time efficiency, and the cost consists of infrastructure investment by governments, global warming phenomena due to CO_2, local environmental hazard due to NO_x, and SO_x, and noise pollution. The weight of each element in society is obtained by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process model, AHP. Secondly, the economical evaluation of the obtained travel demand based on society's point of view is carried out using a generalized cost model. When these two results coincide each other, the result can be acceptable for society, users, and operators. In order to assess the present method, a feasibility study of ferries in Osaka-Takamatsu route is carried out. The results by this model show that some kinds of fast ferries are feasible to be operated to carry passengers and private cars in this route.

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