Modified Newmark analysis of seismic permanent displacements of slopes

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Newmark sliding block models are commonly used for seismic stability analysis of slopes. However, estimation of permanent displacements in conventional Newmark methods is based on a distinct and fixed slip surface which is usually located using a pseudostatic limit equilibrium analysis. By combining a finite element seismic analysis and dynamic programming, this paper first shows that critical slip surfaces within a slope greatly change their shapes and locations over a wide area with time during an earthquake. Then, a modified Newmark analysis is presented in order to consider the effect of variable critical slip surfaces on estimated seismic displacements of slopes. Results of analysis for a hypothetical slope and an actual slope failure caused by an earthquake indicate that the neglect of variation of critical slip surfaces during an earthquake may result in an improper sliding mass and as a result incorrect estimation of permanent displacements. It is also shown that permanent displacement may occur along a relatively wide slip band rather than a distinct slip surface.

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