Implementing species distribution models to predict the impact of global warming on current and future potential habitats of white-spotted char (<i>Salvelinus leucomaenis</i>) for effective conservation planning in Japan

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  • Takegawa Yuya
    Graduate School of Advance Technology and Science, Tokushima University
  • Kawaguchi Yoichi
    Graduate School of Technology, Bio and Social Sciences, Tokushima University
  • Mitsuhashi Hiromune
    Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Institute of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Hyogo
  • Taniguchi Yoshinori
    Faculty of Science and Technology, Meijo University

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Other Title
  • 日本におけるイワナ<i>Salvelinus leucomaenis</i>の生息適地推定と地球温暖化を考慮した保全計画への適用
  • 日本におけるイワナSalvelinus leucomaenisの生息適地推定と地球温暖化を考慮した保全計画への適用
  • ニホン ニ オケル イワナ Salvelinus leucomaenis ノ セイソク テキチ スイテイ ト チキュウ オンダンカ オ コウリョ シタ ホゼン ケイカク エ ノ テキヨウ

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Global warming is causing the distributions of many species to shift towards higher latitudes or altitudes. The white-spotted char (Salvelinus leucomaenis), a cold-water adapted stenothermal fish, is potentially vulnerable to ongoing climatic warming. We therefore evaluated the extent to which the areas protected by national parks cover current and future potential habitats of S. leucomaenis under various climate-warming scenarios. Species distribution models using MaxEnt predicted that catchment area, slope inclination, distance to the river mouth, and estimated ground water temperature were key factors for potential habitats of anadromous and landlocked populations, and that 28.4% of potential habitats would be lost with a 3°C increase in the annual average air temperature. Potential habitats at lower latitudes, in particular, are likely to be affected, and most river basin habitats would disappear if the average temperature were to increase by 2°C. Although potential habitats in higher latitudes are less vulnerable to climate warming, the current national park system would not be able to protect these refuges. There is thus an urgent need for the development of conservation measures to mitigate the potential impact of global warming on white-spotted char habitats.

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