Analysis of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in PCPF-1 modeling for predicting concentrations of rice herbicides

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  • Boulange Julien
    Department of International Environmental and Agricultural Sciences, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology
  • Kondo Kei
    Chemistry Division, The Institute of Environmental Toxicology
  • Phong Thai Khanh
    National Research Centre for Environmental Toxicology, University of Queensland
  • Watanabe Hirozumi
    Department of International Environmental and Agricultural Sciences, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology

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説明

This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations.

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