Event Attribution of the August 2010 Russian Heat Wave

DOI Web Site 被引用文献5件 参考文献30件
  • Watanabe Masahiro
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo
  • Shiogama Hideo
    Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK and National Institute for Environmental Studies
  • Imada Yukiko
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo
  • Mori Masato
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo
  • Ishii Masayoshi
    Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
  • Kimoto Masahide
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo

書誌事項

公開日
2013
資源種別
journal article
DOI
  • 10.2151/sola.2013-015
公開者
公益社団法人 日本気象学会

説明

An extreme heat wave hit western Russia in the summer of 2010. To investigate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to this event, 100-member ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, with and without possible human-induced changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice, were generated. The AGCM can reproduce monthly surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies for the past 30 years over the continental area, indicating a significant influence of the anomalous boundary conditions on the surface climate variability. While the ensemble average does not capture the extremely high SAT anomaly over western Russia observed in August 2010, the ensemble covers the anomaly with the probability of occurrence at 3.3%. Without the anthropogenic change in SST and sea ice, the ensemble fails to capture the observed SAT anomaly, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.6%. The atmospheric response to the tropical precipitation change associated with anthropogenic SST increase leads to warming over Eurasia through northward temperature advection, consistent with the observed upward SAT trend. Drying of the land surface in spring may also have favored the summer warming over western Russia.

収録刊行物

  • SOLA

    SOLA 9 (0), 65-68, 2013

    公益社団法人 日本気象学会

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