Predicting Changes in Suitable Habitats for Beech (Fagus crenata Blume) Forests under Climate Warming in Shirakami Mountains World Natural Heritage Area, Northern Japan.

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  • Matsui T.
    Hokkaido Research Station, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute
  • Tanaka N.
    Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute
  • Yagihashi, T.
    Forestry Division, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences

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Other Title
  • 世界遺産白神山地ブナ林の気候温暖化に伴う分布適域の変化予測
  • セカイ イサン シラカミ サンチ ブナリン ノ キコウ オンダンカ ニ トモナウ ブンプ テキイキ ノ ヘンカ ヨソク

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Abstract

Suitable habitats for beech (Fagus crenata Blume) forests in the year 2100 were predicted in Shirakami Mountains, using a classification tree model and two climate change scenarios (RCM20 and CCSR/NIES), Possible future changes of the forests were discussed. According to the predictive distribution model ENVI, developed with four climatic and five land variables, major controlling factors for the forest distributions were warmth index (WI) and winter precipitation (PRW). Since PRW shows little changes under the two climate change scenarios, WI is the major factor controlling the forest distributions in the future. The suitable habitats for the forests (probability≥0.5) in 2100 were predicted to shrink from the current 95.4% to 0.6% (RCM20) or 0% (CCSR/NIES). Elevation equivalent to the warmth index (WI) of 85.3, that is the lower range limit for F. crenata dominant forests, currently exist at 43 m a.s.l.; however, this will shift upwards in 2100 at 588 m (RCM20) or 909 m (CCSR/NIES). Judging from the field and literature surveys, altitudinal range for F. crenata dominant forests in the study area was between 260 and 1,070 m. Forest management-plan maps showed that c. 80% of the forests in the heritage area are between 150 and 200 years old. This indicates that many F. crenata canopy trees will be mature or senescent in 2100. Temperature increase in the lower range limit of the forests would cause F. crenata tree death and density reduction, and cause the growth of other deciduous, broad-leaved trees such as Quercus crispula and Q. serrata.

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