The Analysis of Mortgage Prepayment, Refinancing and Delay of Payment

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  • 住宅ローンの期限前償還、借り換え行動、延滞の分析
  • ジュウタク ローン ノ キゲンマエ ショウカン カリカエ コウドウ エンタイ ノ ブンセキ

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Abstract

This paper examines how mortgage prepayment, refinancing and delay of payment occur by proportional hazard model and multinominal-logit model and makes the comparison of the models between the adjustable rate loan (ARM; including short time fixed rate loan) and the fixed rate loan (FRM) and estimate the effects on the prepayment and delay by interest rates and income. The results indicate that the mortgage prepayment and refinancing is influenced by the difference between the rate of FRM and that of ARM and borrowers' characteristics such as risk aversive attitude. Borrowers, for example tend to prepay FRM and change their FRM into ARM when housing loan rate is dropping and risk aversive borrowers tend to change ARM into FRM. The results also show that delay of payment is caused by loan to value and income to payment.

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