Simplified Estimation of Damage Costs from Floods due to Earth Dam Breaches Using Response Surface Methods

MIZUMA Keiji, NISHIMURA Shin-ichi, SHIBATA Toshifumi, SHUKU Takayuki

doi:10.11408/jsidre.83.i_147

Most of small earth dams in Japan were constructed at least 100 years ago and need to be improved because Japan is constantly at risk of severe earthquakes and heavy rainstorms. When improvements of earth dams are planned, small earth dams that have a higher risk of dam breaches should be given priority for improvement. Although a risk is defined as the product of occurrence probability and damage costs, estimating the damage costs using existing methods is very difficult and complicated. Therefore, simplified methods are necessary to select earth dams that must be preferentially improved. In order to overcome the difficulties in estimating damage costs, this study proposed a simplified estimation method for damage costs of floods due to earth dam breaches using a response surface method (RSM). RSM is a methodology that produces regression equations, called response surface, that quantitatively express the relationships between responses (output) and factors (input) by regression analyses based on experimental designs. Although many factors need to be considered to estimate damage costs of floods due to dam breaches, this study focused on four factors that largely affect the damage costs as based on results from a sensitivity analysis. Then a response surface that can estimate damage costs of floods was created by using the four parameters and its applicability was examined. As a result, the determination coefficient of the response surface R² was 0.84 and the proposed response surface can be easily applied to estimate damage costs of floods due to dam breaches.

Simplified Estimation of Damage Costs from Floods due to Earth Dam Breaches Using Response Surface Methods

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