Retrospective Voting under Divided Parliaments

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  • 「ねじれ」状況下における業績評価と投票行動
  • 「 ネジレ 」 ジョウキョウ カ ニ オケル ギョウセキ ヒョウカ ト トウヒョウ コウドウ

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A number of studies have suggested that divided parliaments makes it difficult for voters to attribute primary responsibility for their economic conditions and policy outcomes to the government. This study examines the connections between voter's attitudes about divided parliaments and their voting behavior using WEB survey data which we conducted before and after 2012 general election in Japan. Our findings show that 1) voters who support a unicameral assembly or recognize the vital importance of the Diet tend to see the divided parliaments as a problem, 2) performance evaluations of each DPJ Cabinets are strongly influenced by voter's assessment for Hatoyama Cabinet's performance of U.S. military bases in Okinawa, Kan Cabinet's performance of Nuclear accident in Fukushima, and Noda Cabinet's performance of tax system reform, 3) retrospective voting is not observed among voters who see the divided parliaments as a problem.

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