Predictions of bamboo forest distribution and associated environmental factors using natural environmental information GIS and digital national land information in Japan

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  • Someya Takashi
    Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University
  • Takemura Shion
    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Advanced Technology and Science, the University of Tokushima
  • Miyamoto Syun
    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Advanced Technology and Science, the University of Tokushima
  • Kamada Mahito
    Division of Ecosystem Design, Institute of Technology and Science, the University of Tokushima

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Other Title
  • 自然環境情報GISと国土数値情報を用いた日本全域の竹林分布と環境要因の推定
  • シゼン カンキョウ ジョウホウ GIS ト コクド スウチ ジョウホウ オ モチイタ ニホン ゼンイキ ノ チクリン ブンプ ト カンキョウ ヨウイン ノ スイテイ

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Abstract

The expansion of bamboo forests has been assessed for various regions in, mainly, western Japan, but the actual conditions of the distribution of bamboo forests are not clear over a broad scale. We estimated the probability of bamboo forest distribution (PBD) throughout Japan using vegetation data derived from natural environmental information GIS and digital national land information etc. We also examined several environmental factors that may affect the distribution of bamboo forests. The accuracy of PBD was evaluated in several regions using detailed vegetation maps. PBD was estimated using a generalized liner model based on bamboo forest distribution data and environmental variables (warmth index, precipitation, maximum snow depth, surface geology, slope inclination, proportion of land-use types). As a result, a predictive model with high goodness of fit was constructed (AUC=0.815). To assess the applicability of the PBD map, we evaluated the accuracy of PBD predictions in Hiroshima Prefecture. The results indicated that PBD was strongly correlated with both the area of bamboo forest per 1000 ha (R2 =0.872) in six regions and the annual bamboo forest expansion rate (R2 =0.982) in four regions. Third meshes with PBD values greater than 0.48, which value was found as cutoff point from ROC analysis, were found primarily along coastal plains and in hilly zones of western Japan, in areas south of Miyagi Prefecture on the Pacific coast, and south of Niigata Prefecture along the coast of the Sea of Japan. The proportions of land-use types, including forest, farmland, and inhabited areas exhibited non-linear, convex relationships with PBD, suggesting that PBD tends to be high in the "Satoyama" area, which is characterized by a mosaic of these land-use types. Finally, we proposed an example of regional characteristics evaluating method for consideration of land monitoring and management, according to PBD and population change pattern.

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