極値統計法に基づく極低頻度までを対象とした津波リスクマップの基礎的研究

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タイトル別名
  • Basic Study of Tsunami Risk Map based on Extreme Value Analysis
  • ゴクチ トウケイホウ ニ モトズク ゴクテイ ヒンド マデ オ タイショウ ト シタ ツナミ リスクマップ ノ キソテキ ケンキュウ

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抄録

This paper shows the initial results challenged on making tsunami risk map including very extreme tsunami based on the tsunami height records. Extreme value analysis proposed by Goda (1990) was basically employed together with Jackknife method and SLSC method. As number of tsunami height records is small,the extreme distribution functions which were not rejected used for uncertainty of extreme value. The probabilistic hazard areas with the uncertainty of tsunami were calculated by numerical simulation of shallow water equation,of which tsunami height was almost same as the extreme value at the analysis points. The risk maps of house damage and victim were also shown finally. The biggest problem which remained at the end of the study is dealing with the length of tsunami records.

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