多様な津波発生を考慮した南海地震津波の再考

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タイトル別名
  • Revisiting the Great Nankai Trough Earthquake Tsunami Considering the Uncertainty of Source
  • タヨウ ナ ツナミ ハッセイ オ コウリョ シタ ナンカイ ジシン ツナミ ノ サイコウ

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The gap between predicted tsunami height and the realized that increased the amount of damage and delivered a lot of difficulties on the operations of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster. In this paper, the authors analyzed the stochastic property of resultant tsunami height considering the uncertainty in source parameters. Tsunami height at each site is estimated using probabilistic simulations and represented as a probability density function or inverse distribution function. Using these probabilistic description, we can evaluate not only probable maximum tsunami height but also most typical tsunami height at each site or the probability that tsunami will exceed the assumed tsunami height. And combining this with the level of tsunami preparedness, we can revisit the progress of countermeasures quantitatively.

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