Uncertainty of Future Storm Surge Projection due to Climate Change - A Case Study in the Tokyo Bay -

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  • 気候変動に伴う将来高潮予測の不確実性-東京湾をケーススタディーとして-
  • キコウ ヘンドウ ニ トモナウ ショウライ タカシオ ヨソク ノ フカクジツセイ : トウキョウワン オ ケース スタディー ト シテ

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Abstract

It has been discussed that intensity of typhoon may increase in the future due to climate change, resulting in severe coastal disasters. It is important to estimate the probable maximum magnitude of storm surges under the future climate for coastal disaster mitigation. In the present study, uncertainty of storm surge projection was discussed by employing the hundreds of different severe meteorological conditions generated by the potential vorticity inversion method. Ensemble numerical simulation results show the most hazardous typhoon track is different from most intense typhoon's one. Estimated maximum storm surge in the Tokyo bay was 1.4 m which is the same level as the historical highest record.

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