Forecasting Change of Wave and Storm Surge Damage caused by Typhoon Affected by Climate Change -Development of Meteorology-Wave-Storm Surge-Tide Coupled Model and Long Term Prediction-

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  • 気候変動の影響を受けた台風による波浪・高潮被害の変化予測　―気象・波浪・高潮・潮汐統合モデルの開発と長期予測―
  • キコウ ヘンドウ ノ エイキョウ オ ウケタ タイフウ ニ ヨル ハロウ ・ タカシオ ヒガイ ノ ヘンカ ヨソク : キショウ ・ ハロウ ・ タカシオ ・ チョウセキ トウゴウ モデル ノ カイハツ ト チョウキ ヨソク

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Abstract

In the present study, the authors have focused on the effects of an increased risk of storm surge caused by typhoons affected by climate change and forecasted it by integrating weather, wave, storm surge and tide prediction systems. This model, which the authors developed, makes it possible to calculate weather fields of typhoons not only in the past case but also in the future on the basis of meteorology and simulate waves in a complex geographical area, though many previous studies for storm surge simulation have not been based on meteorology. This model is very important for the analysis of the effect that the increase in tropical cyclone intensity will have on coastal damage. The present work proved that the model can accurately reproduce historical typhoons and coastal damage and then applied it to the field of climate change.

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