AN EVACUATION MODEL INCORPORATING COGNITIVE DISSONANCE: INTRODUCTION OF PSYCHOLOGICAL ELEMENTS TO EVACUATION SIMULATION

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  • 心理的作用を考慮した津波避難開始における意思決定モデルの開発

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 When considering tsunami evacuation problems, the existence of some psychological factors (e.g. cognitive dissonance and attitudes waiting for warning) of residents were pointed out as causes of the delays of residents' starting evacuation activities. In order to understand the decision making process for their starting evacuation activities, this research aims to model a decision making incorporating individual rationality and cognitive dissonance in a two-period model. As a result, the paper shows that the present model successfully simulates the evacuee's decision delay for their evacuation activities.

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