FACTORS OF THE EXITS FROM THE ROUTE MARKET IN JAPAN

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Other Title
  • 航空事業者の路線撤退要因に関する分析

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The air transport network has been reorganized in domestic aviation market in Japan. In the reorganization, there were many exits from routes which connected local airports, and service concentration on the trunk route such as Tokyo-Osaka, Tokyo-Sapporo and Tokyo-Fukuoka. Exit from the non-profitable route is a necessary countermeasure to improve carrier's performance. However, the exit exerts a negative influence on not only business performance of the airport but also economic performance of the hinterland of the airport. If manager of the airport and delegates of the region could recognize the possibility of the exit from the route before career decides it, they can afford to develop some strategies to create required demand. In this study, model which can forecast probability of the exit from the route is built. Characteristics of the route such as historical trends of the demand and LF, fluctuations of the demand and LF, and level of competition with rival carrier and high speed rail are used for the explanatory variables of the model. Survival analysis is employed as a mathematical technique to estimates a parameter of the model.

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