Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment Considering Uncertainties Regarding Rupture Process Parameter

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  • SUGINO Hideharu
    Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority
  • IWABUCHI Yoko
    Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority
  • ABE Yuta
    Itochu Techno-Solutions Corporation

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Other Title
  • 破壊伝播特性の不確実さ影響を考慮した確率論的津波ハザード評価手法

Abstract

<p>It is necessary to deal with a variety of uncertainties to affect the prediction of tsunamis in the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment method. The rupture process parameter in a tsunami source model is one of them. In order to grasp influence of the uncertainties regarding the rupture process parameter in the evaluation of tsunami water level, we conducted tsunami simulation with a lot of tsunami source models which changed the location of rupture start point and rupture velocity assuming the concentric circular rupture propagation, estimated tsunami water levels, and analyzed its influence quantitatively. In addition, based on the analysis, we developed a simple method to deal with the uncertainties regarding the rupture process parameter in the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment.</p>

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