避航動作を考慮した場合の航路交差部の交通容量についての一考察

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  • A Consideration on the Traffic Capacity at the Crossing of a Sea Route When Collision-avoiding Maneuvers Are Taken into Account
  • ヒコウ ドウサ オ コウリョシタ バアイ ノ コウロ コウサブ ノ コウツウ

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When a vessel tries to cross a route, she seeks a gap in the queue of the vessels in the main route by means of collision-avoiding maneuver. As the result of this operation, that vessel turns her position to the right. In the narrow sea, the maginitude of this shift (Td) is the most important factor in determining the traffic capacity at the crossing. A certain equation can be established between Td and Tw, i.e., the relative waiting time, which is represented by the same formula as is used for the waiting time in crossing a road on land. Therefore, in case Tw is given, Td can be obtained. However, when the traffic is congested, the vessels in the main route form a number of queues and also the collision-avoiding maneuver of the crossing vessel varies according to the mutual relation among the vessels in the several queues formed in the main route. Therefore, in such a case, it is difficult to obtain Tw by the theoretical formula. In this paper, the solution is sought by means of Monte Carlo Method ; the probability curve of Tw is presented ; and the nature of this solution is discussed. Besides, Td is calculated from the result of this solution ; the value thus obtained is ascertained to be very close to the value actually observed at the crossing ; and examinations are made on the traffic capacity at this crossing.

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