A Model for Estimating the Trip Distribution of Ships : An Application of Entropy Concept

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  • 港間交通量分布を推定する方法 : エントロピー概念の応用
  • ミナト カン コウツウリョウ ブンプ オ スイテイ スル ホウホウ--エントロピー ガイネン ノ オウヨウ

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Abstract

Author proposed a model for estimating the trip distribution between each pair of centroids such as harbours and straits. The model was mainly based on the concept of entropy and the trip distribution was derived only from traffic volume through harbours and straits. The model was numerically applied to ships on marine traffic routes in Osaka Bay in order to study model feasibility. The trip distributions in Osaka Bay for various sizes of ships by the model was compared with those observed by a large scale traffic survey there and their agreements were found to be good except for the ship size larger than 3, 000T. The reasons why trips at sea can be expressed by the simpler model than that at roads seems to be due to the simplicity of traffic routes and objects and no alternative means of transport but ship. It would be capable by the model for us to evaluate such problems as the encounter rate of the crossing in a bay and the contribution of increase of traffic volume at one harbour to the other.

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