北太平洋ルートにおける航空機対の水平重畳確率の推定

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • Estimation of the Lateral Overlap Probability for the Pair of Aircraft Flying on the North Pacific Routes
  • キタ タイヘイヨウ ルート ニ オケル コウクウキ ツイ ノ スイヘイ チョウ

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抄録

The safety of the North Pacific (NOPAC) route system has been evaluated using a collision risk model. This paper describes the method and results of the estimation of the lateral overlap probability which is a key parameter of the model. The probability was estimated from the empirical distribution of cross track deviations from the assigned track of a NOPAC route, namely R 220. The data obtained from air route surveillance radars together with flight plan data were used for the analyses. The estimated lateral overlap probability value for 100NM of lateral separation, Py (100) is 2.4x10^<-8>.

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