都市の財政運営と政治経済学

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タイトル別名
  • Municipal Fiscal Management and Political Economy
  • 都市の財政運営と政治経済学--「政府の分極化仮説」と財政赤字の関係に着目した実証分析
  • トシ ノ ザイセイ ウンエイ ト セイジ ケイザイガク セイフ ノ ブンキョクカ カセツ ト ザイセイ アカジ ノ カンケイ ニ チャクモク シタ ジッショウ ブンセキ
  • An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between “Weak Government Hypothesis” and Fiscal Deficits
  • 「政府の分極化仮説」と財政赤字の関係に着目した実証分析

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We empirically investigate effects of political economy factors of local governments on their public debt employing a panel dataset for Japanese cities. We mainly examine weak government hypothesis that government fragmentation leads to higher public deficits and debt. But, we also examine whether political business cycle exists in local governments or not. By using datasets of all cities and cities with population of a hundred thousand, we also analyze if size of city influences impact of these political factors. Our results are as follows. First, we find that party fragmentation leads to the greater fiscal deficit of Japanese cities. If the seat share of ruling party (coalition) in the council is small or the number of parties in ruling coalition is great, fiscal deficit increases. Especially, they have a robust effect on the deficit in cities with more than a hundred thousand people. In addition, if a city had a mayor who had received recommendation from more than two parties in the last election, fiscal deficit of it would expand. Second, we find that strong political leadership might contribute to cutting fiscal deficit of local governments. If a mayor in a city with a hundred thousand people got higher percentage of votes, public debt would decrease more and bond would be issued less in a year. If the mayor in the city won more times, bond would be issued less by the city. We also have findings on political business cycle and effects of city size. We do not have evidence on political business cycle for all cities but have for cities with a hundred thousand people. Judging from our results on this and weak government hypothesis, population size of city is very likely to influence effect of political factors on local pubic fiscal debt and policy.

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