The effect of increasing tobacco tax on tobacco sales in Japan

DOI Web Site PubMed 12 References
  • ITO Yuri
    Center for Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases
  • NAKAMURA Masakazu
    Department of Health Promotion and Prevention Osaka Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Prevention

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • たばこ税・価格の引き上げによるたばこ販売実績への影響
  • タバコゼイ ・ カカク ノ ヒキアゲ ニ ヨル タバコ ハンバイ ジッセキ エ ノ エイキョウ

Search this article

Description

Objectives Since the special tobacco tax was established in 1998, the tobacco tax and price of tobacco have increased thrice, in 2003, 2006, and 2010, respectively. We evaluated the effect of increases in tax on the consumption and sales of tobacco in Japan using the annual data on the number of tobacco products sold and the total sales from Japan Tobacco, Inc.<br/>Methods We applied the number of tobacco products sold and the total sales per year to a joinpoint regression model to examine the trends in the data. This model could help identify the year in which a decrease or increase was apparent from the data. In addition, we examined the effect of each tax increase while also considering other factors that may have caused a decrease in the levels of tobacco consumption using the method proposed by Hirano et al.<br/>Results According to the joinpoint regression analysis, the number of tobacco products sold started decreasing in 1998, and the trends of decrease accelerated to 5% per year, from 2005. Owing to the tax increase, tobacco sales reduced by −2.4%, −2.9%, and −10.1% (corrected for the effect of the Tohoku Great Earthquake), and price elasticity was estimated as −0.30, −0.27, and −0.28 (corrected) in 2003, 2006, and 2010, respectively. The effect of tobacco tax increase on the decrease in tobacco sales was greatest in 2010, while the price elasticity remained almost the same as it was during the previous tax increase.<br/>Conclusion The sharp hike in tobacco tax in 2010 decreased the number of tobacco products sold, while the price elasticity in 2010 was similar to that in 2003 and 2006. Our findings suggest that further increase in tobacco tax is needed to reduce the damage caused by smoking in the people of Japan.

Journal

References(12)*help

See more

Related Projects

See more

Keywords

Details 詳細情報について

Report a problem

Back to top